I know we’re not supposed to make predictions about the Olympic Team this far in advance. We’re supposed to enjoy the competitions and performances along the way as ends in themselves.
Most of the time I agree with that argument and try to abide by it, but really, how can one watch Team USA’s performance in Jesolo and not begin wondering who will make the trip to Rio—and who won’t? I’m sure that the women vying for the team are caught in the same conundrum, trying to simply enjoy the privilege of competing internationally at a smaller competition, and at the same time painstakingly aware that every move they make is registered. I certainly do not envy them, nor do I envy Marta Karolyi. It’s hard to imagine having to choose between so many perfectly capable and talented athletes.
Certainly, Team USA’s performance in Jesolo confirmed what we already knew: they are, far and away, the team to beat in Rio. They made that clear even without their superstar leader, Simone Biles.
What’s less clear is what mix of them will get the Olympic assignment. Jesolo didn’t help us there, and the questions are endless:
-Will Marta make room for more than two potential All-Around Finalists?
-Will a one-event specialist get the call? Could it be on an event other than vault?
-Will a cut-and-dry, top-three scores on each event analysis suffice? Or will experience and even a smidge of sentimentality or PR enter the discernment process? (That’s not typically Marta’s way but there’s a first time for everything.)
For the sake of expediency, and really just to get this puzzle thing rolling, let’s take a look at three routines, from three different gymnasts. When you compare the following scores to those received by USA gymnasts at the 2015 World Championships (across qualifications and every Final), these are the scores that would have fit into a three-up-three-count line-up in the Team Final:
- Ashton Locklear on uneven bars: Wow. Her highest score in Jesolo was a whopping 15.650, a friendly wave and thumbs up to the four champions in Glasgow. Her transitions (Komova, Maloney, bail, stalder-shoot) are seamless, her handstands solid, her line and execution almost immaculate. Put this routine in with the top bar-workers from Glasgow (Kocian, Douglas, Nichols) and it would have topped all of them. I was pleased when Marta made room for Kocian last year, and I hope it’s a trend that continues. Team USA need not be dismissed when it comes to bars anymore.
- Laurie Hernandez on balance beam: earning a 15.300, this was the routine I was most impressed with in Jesolo. From her very first element, through a spot-on BHS to LOSO X2 and a front tuck to wolf and stuck BHS X2 to double pike dismount, she looked as if she owned the beam, and the arena. No hesitation, no wobbling, no indication that this might be the single most important routine in terms of propelling her into the Olympic discussion for good. She brought confidence and even some attitude to an event that lacked both in Glasgow, and her score was significantly higher than Raisman’s and Nichols’, two of three in Team USA’s 2015 line-up.
- Ragan Smith on balance beam: I admittedly missed this routine and haven’t been able to locate an available video online, but her highest score in Jesolo was a 15.200, which also would have fit nicely into a team line-up in Glasgow. It’s not a surprising score, given her past performances and the simple value of more time and experience. She has the same sort of attack as Hernandez, and she basically floats her BHS to layout. If not for her solid standing full, you’d think she was a feather.
For as difficult as it is not to begin putting the team puzzle together with every collective performance, it is also premature to take the results of the aforementioned athletes as a sign that others are in trouble, especially when those performances didn’t carry across more than one event. We might not see Aly Raisman in the All Around this year, but she is still making a good case for herself as someone who can bring in a highly competitive score on both beam and floor; the former has improved since Glasgow and she won the latter. Gabby Douglas might not be top-three on anything other than bars, but her all-around game is still second only to Simone’s and she has demonstrated great composure and consistency since her comeback, qualities that are equally as valuable. The same goes for Maggie Nichols, though I do worry she may be poised to suffer the same fate as Bailie Key last year: terrific all-around performance, but without a consistent top-three score on any event, easy to leave behind.
Oh, the exquisite frustration. And this is just the beginning. Buckle up.
**Article: Sara Dorrien-Christians **
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