Let’s be honest, for those of us invested in our gymnastics universe, there are few topics that can divide the gymternet like an Olympic team selection. For the USA, in recent quads, the sheer depth of our national rosters has made “comebacks” especially contentious. There are a lot of words thrown around and justifications made for who “deserves” to be on the team. This can lead to an awful lot of speculation and defensiveness. I prefer a colder analysis. Math. That’s right, you heard me. Let’s parse this down to numbers to see what may be…
Starting off there are a few assumptions we need to make. First, we have the 4-up 3-count of qualifications. We all know that Simone Biles, The Queen, will compete during the TQ on all four events as an all-arounder. This leaves 3 spots open on each apparatus during TQ. Martha will make adjustments during the TF as she sees fit to maximize the point cushion. So, for brevity and analytical purposes we are going to look at whose numbers would be used during TQs. Second, beyond The Queen, we should NOT make an assumption about who (or how many) all-arounders may compete for the second spot. Remember, Wieber? Good.
So let’s begin the numbers game: (Performances = number of 2016 competition performances)
** **
Floor Exercise: *Average skewed due to low # of performances.
<td width="125">
<strong>Performances</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Highest D-score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Average Score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Rank</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.1
</td>
<td width="125">
14.631
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>9</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.6</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.356</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>1</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>14.858</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
6.5
</td>
<td width="125">
14.563
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.2
</td>
<td width="125">
14.392
</td>
<td width="125">
8
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.1
</td>
<td width="125">
14.488
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.05</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
3
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
14.45
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
Floor exercise can be a tricky beast for a selection committee. Objectively, Aly and Simone are leagues above the rest in terms of D-score and execution. Note that while Skinner has a great D-score, her average execution doesn’t even land her in the top 4. Someone’s possible score can be misleading if you don’t watch what they actually achieve from it. Additionally, Swaggie Maggie is a fan favorite and has both D and E scores that make her highly attractive. But, she’s recovering from injury and has only competed this FX twice in competition this year…can we really draw a conclusion from so little evidence? It looks to come down to Laurie Hernandez and Gabby Douglas to fill in the 4-up during TQ. Bear in mind that only 0.4 points separates Hernandez and Ragan Smith. This is a tight field.
Vault:
<td width="125">
<strong>Performances</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Highest D-score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Average Score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Rank</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
15.04
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>7</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.164</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
14.936
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.4</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.293</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>1</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
14.700
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
14.850
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>5.8</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.065</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
3
</td>
<td width="125">
5.0
</td>
<td width="125">
13.80
</td>
<td width="125">
8
</td>
Sometimes I think the selection committee thanks the gym gods for Vault. It’s easier to judge the ability and see trends. Obviously, Aly and Skinner are the top choices. Skinner also presents a great opportunity for an individual medal on this event. Hmmm, so it comes down to Hernandez and Douglas again…look closely at the data. Gabby edges Laurie by 0.11 points. But she also vaults in fewer competitions this year. Truthfully, though I said I wasn’t going to speculate on AAs besides Simone, it’s starting to look like you might have to in order to decide who goes. When you put up the 4th person in quals for this event, it really would come down to who could best utilize this score for a chance at the AA.
Balance Beam:
<td width="125">
<strong>Performances</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Highest D-score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Average Score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Rank</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.3
</td>
<td width="125">
14.536
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>9</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.5</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>14.983</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>7</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.5</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.307</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>1</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
6.4
</td>
<td width="125">
14.010
</td>
<td width="125">
8
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>9</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.4</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>14.941</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
13.440
</td>
<td width="125">
9
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
6.3
</td>
<td width="125">
14.196
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
6.0
</td>
<td width="125">
14.25
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
5.8
</td>
<td width="125">
14.133
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
Balance beam, my nemesis in my own gym days, is becoming the equalizer in these Olympic Trials. Day 1 was a gasp-fest. I think what truly surprised me on this data was that Laurie edges out everyone else. I knew she was good, but seeing the numbers is impressive. Gabby falls an average of 0.8 behind Hernandez. Kocian and Locklear, while acknowledged as UB specialists, are looking to prove to Martha that they can fill in other places. Let’s assume that Martha pulls a 2012 and takes Skinner for her vaulting prowess. That leaves 3 spots open with one, duh, going to Aly Raisman. Kocian and Locklear are 0.3-0.4 points behind Douglas on balance beam, and all three of them trail Hernandez by 0.8-1.2 points. This selection stuff is hard!
Uneven Bars:
<td width="125">
<strong>Performances</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Highest D-score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Average Score</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>Rank</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>7</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.6</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.081</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>3</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.0
</td>
<td width="125">
14.075
</td>
<td width="125">
8
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
<td width="125">
6.5
</td>
<td width="125">
14.879
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
6.1
</td>
<td width="125">
13.880
</td>
<td width="125">
9
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.2
</td>
<td width="125">
14.508
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
6.5
</td>
<td width="125">
14.675
</td>
<td width="125">
5
</td>
<td width="125">
4
</td>
<td width="125">
6
</td>
<td width="125">
14.346
</td>
<td width="125">
7
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>5</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.7</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.680</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>1</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>9</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>6.5</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>15.608</strong>
</td>
<td width="125">
<strong>2</strong>
</td>
Oh the uneven bars…what I believe is the “tie-breaker” right now. Locklear and Kocian have the potential for huge scores on this event. Imagine this line-up on UB: Biles, Locklear, Kocian and Hernandez. Hernandez trails Douglas by 0.2 on this event. I did the math, by the way, and Hernandez edges Douglas’ average AA score by 0.6925, and edges Raisman’s average AA by 0.402. These aren’t unbeatable margins, but they are a surprise. I remember thinking that Laurie was giving Aly a good challenge at the P&G Championships, but I didn’t realize until I analyzed the scores that Laurie, mathematically speaking, really does have a shot at an individual medal!
So here we come to the crux of it- the data supports Biles, Raisman, and Hernandez outright. This leaves, essentially, two spots on this team. Realistically I can see Skinner, Locklear, Kocian, Douglas and Smith in this fight. Maximizing medal chances at this point comes down to Event Finals just like a lot of gym experts have been saying all along (but honestly, when have I ever listened to experts?). Skinner looks very appealing in this light. At least a bronze in the vault, I think. Floor exercise will be a split between Raisman and Biles, and I can see Biles and Hernandez in the balance beam finals. So, who could bring the best shot for an EF medal in UB? My money, if I had any right now, would be on Locklear and hear me out on why. Personally, I’d love to see Locklear and Kocian go to Rio. I could see both of them on the podium during EF. But hypothetically, there’s only one spot left. Locklear has masterfully executed this routine 9 times this year during competition, and the scores varied by just fractions each time. She’s got this routine in her bones. Kocian, meanwhile has perfomed it 5 times and while she has a potentially higher D-score, Locklear has been 1st at Jesolo, Pac-Rim, Secret Classic and P&G Championships. Kocian placed first in one competition this year- WOGA.
The above scenario is predicated on Skinner going as part of the team. If Martha leaves her behind it opens up another spot. My money would be on Gabby Douglas at this point. Her scores contribute well and she might even be in for an event final if someone falls during TQs.
All will be revealed tomorrow night after the Trials. I’ll be honest, even after this excruciating mathematical exercise I can’t pin down whether or not Martha will take Douglas as part of the team. I feel like her last Olympic team selection will be classic Martha- inscrutably perfect even if it doesn’t match the math. She’s done a great job with the women’s team, and we’ve been lucky to have her as our team coordinator.
A quick note about methodology: I totaled up all scores from all performances in 2016. I think this lends a greater credibility to the statistic. It becomes easier to spot someone’s inflated score (like Nichols’) because she’s only competed a handful of times as compared to someone like Raisman who has consistently thrown these routines in 7 or more competitions. Additionally, I only included 2016 competitions to avoid too large a data pool that might skew the accuracy of how a gymnast is performing at the present time. I included the highest D-score for each competitor, and it is worth noting that these don’t swing wildly, but I wanted everyone to be given their best shot.
Article: Kimberly Wooster
Photo Cover: USA Gymnastics
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!